Adaptive resource management and the value of information

The value of information is a general and broadly applicable concept that has been used for several decades to aid in making decisions in the face of uncertainty. Yet there are relatively few examples of its use in ecology and natural resources management, and almost none that are framed in terms of the future impacts of management decisions. In this paper we discuss the value of information in a context of adaptive management, in which actions are taken sequentially over a timeframe and both future resource conditions and residual uncertainties about resource responses are taken into account. Our objective is to derive the value of reducing or eliminating uncertainty in adaptive decision making. We describe several measures of the value of information, with each based on management objectives that are appropriate for adaptive management. We highlight some mathematical properties of these measures, discuss their geometries, and illustrate them with an example in natural resources management. Accounting for the value of information can help to inform decisions about whether and how much to monitor resource conditions through time.     

Evaluating weather effects on interannual variation in net ecosystem productivity of a coastal temperate forest landscape: A model intercomparison

Forest productivity is strongly affected by seasonal weather patterns and by natural or anthropogenic disturbances. However weather effects on forest productivity are not currently represented in inventory-based models such as CBM-CFS3 used in national forest C accounting programs. To evaluate different approaches to modelling these effects, a model intercomparison was conducted among CBM-CFS3 and four process models (ecosys, CN-CLASS, Can-IBIS and 3PG) over a 2500 ha landscape in the Oyster River (OR) area of British Columbia, Canada. The process models used local weather data to simulate net primary productivity (NPP), net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and net biome productivity (NBP) from 1920 to 2005. Other inputs used by the process and inventory models were generated from soil, land cover and disturbance records. During a period of intense disturbance from 1928 to 1943, simulated NBP diverged considerably among the models. This divergence was attributed to differences among models in the sizes of detrital and humus C stocks in different soil layers to which a uniform set of soil C transformation coefficients was applied during disturbances. After the disturbance period, divergence in modelled NBP among models was much smaller, and attributed mainly to differences in simulated NPP caused by different approaches to modelling weather effects on productivity. In spite of these differences, age-detrended variation in annual NPP and NEP of closed canopy forest stands was negatively correlated with mean daily maximum air temperature during July-September (T_amax) in all process models (R² = 0.4-0.6), indicating that these correlations were robust. The negative correlation between T_amax and NEP was attributed to different processes in different models, which were tested by comparing CO₂ fluxes from these models with those measured by eddy covariance (EC) under contrasting air temperatures (T_a). The general agreement in sensitivity of annual NPP to T_amax among the process models led to the development of a generalized algorithm for weather effects on NPP of coastal temperate coniferous forests for use in inventory-based models such as CBM-CFS3: NPP′ = NPP − 57.1 (T_amax − 18.6), where NPP and NPP′ are the current and temperature-adjusted annual NPP estimates from the inventory-based model, 18.6 is the long-term mean daily maximum air temperature during July-September, and T_amax is the mean value for the current year. Our analysis indicated that the sensitivity of NPP to T_amax was nonlinear, so that this algorithm should not be extrapolated beyond the conditions of this study. However the process-based methodology to estimate weather effects on NPP and NEP developed in this study is widely applicable to other forest types and may be adopted for other inventory based forest carbon cycle models.     

Estimation of pasture infectivity according to weather conditions through a fuzzy parametrized model for the free-living stage of Ostertagia ostertagi

Gastrointestinal parasitism is one of the diseases that has the highest economic impact on the Argentinian beef production system, rendering it inefficient. In the region of the Humid Pampas, it has been estimated that 22 million dollars are lost annually because of the death of calves and 170 million dollars are lost in sub-clinic costs. A mathematical model with fuzzy parameters was constructed for the analysis of the free-living stages of gastrointestinal parasites, with the purpose of estimating the pool of L3 larvae available for migration to pasture and the levels of infection in pasture at any time of the year under different climatic conditions. The model is formulated in terms of a system of three difference equations. These equations describe the abundance of parasites in each of the successive stages of the population development. The model was calibrated and tested with data gathered through fieldwork carried out in Tandil (37°19′S, 59°08′05″W), province of Buenos Aires (Argentina) and the corresponding weather data. A comparison between model simulations and fieldwork data obtained in other locations achieved satisfactory results.     

Projecting landscape changes in southern Chile: Simulation of human and natural processes driving land transformation

We describe a simulation model representing the most important human and natural factors driving land use and cover changes (LUCC) in southern Chile. We evaluate the model by examining its ability to simulate LUCC observed over the past three decades, conduct a sensitivity analysis of simulated trends to changes in important model parameters, and use the model to project likely landscape transformations over the next decade under “as usual,” “pessimistic,” and four “optimistic” scenarios. The model consists of five submodels representing LUCC on two distinct soil formations (volcanic ash and gleysols) and four major land use categories: native forest, agricultural land, shrubland, and urban land. Land use and cover sub-categories include old growth forests, secondary forests, and low and flooded shrubland. The model simulated well general historic trends in forest cover, agricultural land, shrubland, and urban land: from a forest-dominated landscape in 1976 to a landscape dominated by shrubland and agricultural land by 2007. Forest loss, forest degradation by logging and clearing for agriculture were the most important direct drivers of LUCC: forest logging and clearing were most important from 1976 to 1985, whereas after 1985 logging for firewood, driven by population growth, was most important. Sensitivity analysis indicated that model projections of general trends in the main land use and cover categories were not overly sensitive to changes in important model parameters, although further study is necessary to improve our estimates of the proportion of pasture requirements supplied by clearing low shrubland. Projections of LUCC suggested that a reduced amount of secondary forest would be left by 2017 if no actions are taken to reduce forest loss (“as usual”). Increasing population (“pessimistic scenario”) resulted in similar trajectories than those predicted by the as usual scenario, whereas reducing logging for firewood and increasing forest recruitment from shrubland could reduce loss of native forest by nearly one-third (“optimistic scenarios”). Surprisingly, shrubland exhibited the most complex and influential dynamics in all scenarios, being the immediate outcome of forest loss and the main long-term source of land for agriculture, urban expansion, and forest recovery. Few studies in Chile, or elsewhere, have considered the importance of this intermediate successional stage. Of the scenarios simulated, financial incentives targeted toward channeling shrubland into regenerated forest seemed most promising, although obstacles to such a management strategy exist.     

集装箱岸桥安全操作中信息处理建模及分析

为研究集装箱岸桥(QC)装卸作业安全操作机理,利用信息论的理论和方法对岸桥信息处理与传递进行建模和计算。首先总结集装箱装卸作业流程的11个作业环节,以人脑为信道,利用通信系统模型建立岸桥司机装卸作业各环节的信息传输转换模型。基于甘特图思想,建立整个装卸作业流程的刺激-反应流程图;并计算作为刺激的各信息源事件的信息量I(xi),信源熵H(X)和信息传递量HT。根据描述性模型和定量计算结果,对各作业环节提出有针对性的事故预防措施。     

A Model to Analyze Ergonomics Working Conditions

An ergonomics and safety model to assess and evaluate the most critical industrial improvement areas in a developing nation. This study was initiated and supported by a Fortune 500 Corporation interested in improving its global operations in developing nations. This initiative was also fully supported by an emerging nation that was concerned with its ergonomics and safety problems. The model was tested and validated in the emerging nation and the results were used to further enhance the model so that it can be implemented and adapted to other similar work environments. The model provides a practical methodology that analyzes and evaluates an emerging nation’s current work environments, suggests practical solutions, and recommends effective remedies.     

An OH&S Management System as a Source of Information

The concept of an occupational health and safety management system (OH&S MS) has become widespread over the past 20 years. However, there are few studies on the subject, they are generally methodologically weak and in many cases cannot be generalized. A formalized OH&S MS is a set of rules and connected elements of the general organization management system which guarantees accomplishment of the organization?s objectives in the area of upgrading safety conditions of both employees and the environment. The need for research on voluntary management systems stems from the necessity to propagate appropriate solutions and their continuous development processes. This paper discusses an OH&S MS as a source of data and essential information on the process of developing a system. It examines the relationship between the degree to which the requirements of Standard No. PN-N-18001:2004 have been adapted and the demand for health and safety data and information.     

信息技术与高职英语教学整合应用探析

把信息技术融入高职英语教学已经成为高职院校英语教学的普遍现象。从高职英语教学现状分析入手,结合学习的联结理论和建构主义理论,论述了信息技术是高职英语教学改革的必然性。详细分析了信息技术在高职英语教学中具有的显著特点和优势,以及信息技术与高职英语教学的整合模式,即情景教学模式、学生主体模式和交互学习模式。在此基础上分别从教师、学生两个角度深入探讨了在英语教学中应用信息技术应该注意的一些问题。通过这些深入的探讨应该看到随着更先进的信息技术引入教育领域,高职英语课堂将更具有吸引力,教师的教学空间将更加开放和富有创意,学生的自主学习将更加宽广和富有弹性。     

Computer‐Aided Negotiations of Water Disputes: An Interdisciplinary Role‐Playing Course

This study examines the evolution of a microworld created in a stakeholder process into educational materials used in a classroom setting. Microworlds have been used to stimulate learning through engagement in classroom and professional settings, but to our knowledge this is the first example that demonstrates utilization of the same process in both settings in the field of water resources, involving collaboration between the educational and professional sectors. An interdisciplinary role‐playing course in Computer‐Aided Negotiations (CAN) of water disputes is used as a case study. Upper‐level undergraduate students of varied academic backgrounds interacted in both the CAN process and river basin management model used in the CAN process as microworlds for one semester. We found evidence of meaningful engagement with both the process and model by all students. This finding has implications for engaging stakeholders without technical backgrounds in CAN processes. Students reported learning gains on surveys and pre/posttest scores improved, although only one item showed a statistically significant increase. During and after the teaching of this course, there was feedback of work products from the students to river basin managers. The course also provides the opportunity to learn the art of collaborative modeling through example and practice. Course materials are available at http://www.hydrologics.net/CAN_Course/.     

Inspiring Futures for European Local Governments!

Since 1994, more than 2000 European local governments have adopted the principles of the Aalborg Charter as a basis for local sustainability action. Now, ten years later in June 2004, these local governments will gather once again in Aalborg, Denmark at the Fourth European Conference on Sustainable Cities and Towns in Europe, Inspiring Futures—Aalborg+10. The Aalborg+10 event will celebrate a decade of European local sustainability action, evaluate progress and stagnation, and, more importantly, will adopt new commitments to move from Agenda to Action. The conference will be crucial for accelerating local sustainability in Europe and to move towards Local Action. Here an overview is provided on the context against which this important conference is set and its expected outcomes.